Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Professional Fortune Tellers

It seems to me that there are a significant number of professions that ought to have the tag "Professional Fortune Teller" appended to their qualifications. Here's how it works:
Everyone knows that it is not possible to predict the future however people and businesses need to know the future in order to position themselves advantageously so they hire, to avoid responsibility, these professional fortune tellers to give their opinions on the future and these opinions become quasi-reality. At some point in the future the present catches up and the predictions made are either mostly right or mostly wrong; if they were right, the fortune teller gets tick next to his/her name and the employer feels that the money invested in the prediction was justified. If however the fortune teller was wrong he/she gets a cross next to their name and the money invested is written off to experience. Either way, the next day the process starts again but the future is like a quantum state; if you observe it - it changes so who's to say that one didn't actually observe it but by doing so it changed.

Professional Fortune Tellers : Economists, Investment Advisors, Project Managers, Financial Forecasters, Traders, Budgets, Retirement Planners, Risk Assessors
Employers of Professional Fortune Tellers: You, me and everyone else.

So what is my point? There is nothing wrong with hiring Professional Fortune Tellers after all; an educated guess is better than an arbitrary guess but one should never lose sight of the fact that at the end of the day it is still just a guess.

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